One of the best things you can do to improve your estimates is also among the easiest.
It's called triangulating.
The name refers to how sailors could determine a ship's position using landmarks on the horizon before GPS devices became so commonly available.
A ship's navigator would look at two known landmarks and draw a line to each on a map.
The intersection of the lines would be the ship location.
If I see a lighthouse over there and a marked buoy over it there, lines to eat will tell me where I'm located.
How do you use this to get better estimates?
Compare the item you're estimating to two other items you've already estimated.
For example, if a team is considering estimated something as 5 points, compare that item to an 8 and a 3. If the item seems a bit smaller than an eight
and larger than a three, then 5 is probably a good estimate.
One of your comparisons could be to item of the same size.
But if so, make sure to choose a second item that's a bit larger or smaller.
You can triangulate against more than two items, of course, but that can take more time, and there's very little to gain compared to using just two well-chosen items.
I like to chose items that are one value above and one below the item being estimated in whatever sequence of values you use for estimating.
If you're estimating with powers of 2, 1, 2 4, 8, and 16, then 4 is best compared to a 2 and an 8. It's the same thinking if you are using the Fibonacci sequence.
Choosing good items to compare against is critical.
And there's more to it than picking items above and below the estimate you think of.
You want to select items that were themselves well estimated.
To do this, at the end of each sprint, have the scrum master or team members collectively note any finished items that will be good to use in future comparisons.
Look for items after they've been finished seem like they have a right estimate.
That is, the team estimated this item as a 3, and when it's finished, team member still think it is a three.
Also, look for items on which there is strong agreement.
Don't compare against an item that half the team thinks should have been a five and the other half thinks it should've been an eight.
I coach Scrum Masters to maintain a list of these exemplary comparison items.
It doesn't need to be a long list.
No more than three items of each value is plenty.
Then, when a team is estimating, the Scum Master can look at this list and suggest good comparisons.
Age out older items, A team will be much better able to triangulate against an item they worked on three months ago than an items they work on when dinosaurs
roamed the earth.
One of the best things about triangulating estimates is that it can speed up your estimating sessions.
When team members start to bog down in an argument over the estimate, triangulated.
This may not immediately settle the dispute, but it generally will move a team closer to consensus.
Triangulating is easy to get started with and can significantly improve a team's estimates.
Next time you're estimating, try it by comparing the item you are estimative to one larger and one smaller item.
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