Estimating is tough, but there are many things you can do that will result in better estimates.
In this video, let's take a look at two of them.
As a first tip, uncover hidden assumptions by asking team members what has to go right for you to finish in that amount of time.
This forces estimators to consider and verbalize their assumptions.
as an example, a tester might say that they need to get a fully testable version of a feature with at least four days left in the sprint.
Or a programmer might say they are assuming the last few open issues on the user interface design don't add significant complexity to the work.
A similar question you could ask instead is, what could make this estimate too low?
This question will also encourage estimators to think about things they're assuming will go well.
It's fine to base an estimate on things going well, but the estimate becomes questionable if it requires too many things to all end up being true.
Let's look at a second technique to improve a team's estimates.
This technique is called unpacking.
When unpacked an item to be estimated, the team discusses either the steps that will be performed to complete the item or some attributes of the work.
For example, suppose a team is estimating making a spaghetti dinner for a few friends.
There are two general ways this could be unpacked.
First would be for the team to discuss the steps involved.
Team members list steps such as shopping for ingredients, chopping the vegetables for sauce, cooking the sauce.
Also chopping vegetables from the salad that will accompany dinner, making garlic bread, and so on.
Another way to unpack making a spaghetti dinner could be to list the ingredients that will go into the meal.
Noodles, tomatoes, garlic, onions, butter, bread, lettuce, and so on.
Whichever of these ways a team unpacks cooking a Spaghetti Dinner, their estimate will likely be larger than if they had not unpacked the work.
Research has shown that unpacking leads to larger estimates, which are more likely to be accurate, as most teams tend to underestimate.
Think about how you would have estimated cooking the spaghetti dinner without unpackging.
Then think about your estimate would've changed after listing either the steps or all of the ingredients.
Most likely, the extra detail would lead you to a higher and probably more realistic estimate.
As an example, suppose a programmer on a team frequently underestimates how long programming tasks will take.
In the next sprint planning meeting, ask that programmer to give just a high level description of what the code will need to do.
When the programmer describes the steps the codes will perform, she is unpacking the work.
After describing the coat this way, the estimate she'll provide will usually be larger and more likely a better estimate.
Note that when unpacking something, the team identifies sub-steps of the work, but they estimate the original full thing,
not the sub steps.
If your team chronically underestimates, which will show up as them bringing more into a sprint than they can finish, include unpack in your next sprint
planning meeting.
You don't need to do it on every backlog item being considered for the sprint.
Try it first on the larger or riskier items.
Asking questions like what has got to go right for you to finish in that amount of time and unpacking items before estimating them can help your team get
better at estimations.
If you try either of these techniques, let me know in the comments how it works for your.
And if you have any other tips for improving a team's estimates, please share those as well.
I read and value every comment.
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